Denominators relevant to establishing domain and brand value

Without actually designing products myself, I’ve long come to a mutual conclusion that products and I don’t quite agree on clear definitions of ‘value’. Same goes with vehicles, services that I’m foreign to and even prostitution (although I’ve not personally attempted valuation of the latter). One area where I’ve become quite masterful is domain value in relation to branding, the never-ending perpetual cyber façade which pits 30 definitions of domain brevity against each other. Whereas I wouldn’t personally pay $3M for some domain name I’ll only use for several decades, others have. And continually will.

When learning how to brand your business, one question that endlessly fazes my daily activities: what denominators are actually relevant in establishing something as widely misunderstood as domain valuation and brand worthiness? Let’s dissect:

How Badly Do You Want It?

Much like lining up outside some powerful drug dealer’s home waiting for crack, sellers know that buyers will eventually line up, begging for their domain property for reasons unbeknownst to them: perhaps all the seller knows is the buyer wants it. And are willing to pay dearly just to own it – even for just months. Hands down, without even starting the clock, this perhaps defines domain value better than any metrics conceivable. We call this, in sales nomenclature, ‘bring your own Vaseline’ since someone is about to get reamed without the benefit of lubrication in this seller-friendly situation.

Buyers automatically increase premium domain name’s worthiness tenfold simply by specifying their unwavering devotion towards purchasing said name. Properties sitting inside idle parking accounts that, for all intents and purposes, have ‘high net worth’ to owners are simply expensive pixels to viewers since ownership necessitation has never been clearly specified by anyone. For example, those who are branding in the print industry may wish to find Vista Print Coupons for the benefit of branding their own business merch.

How ‘Trendy’ Is The Name?

Arm & Hammer isn’t pretty. It barely smells good, if at all, to boot. However, it was the hottest thing since Prohibition whiskey when it first came out. Today, social media, Edward Snowden and scores of oddities I cannot keep up with rule mainstream media and fill online shopping carts. Popularity, your second most important telltale sign of developmental potential, rules the domain value world with unruly power. Sellers usually capitalize on what’s growing, going and blowing with the commerce winds to make hefty profits off your thirst for quick results.

Should your name have old school appeal which attracts youthful and adult audiences equally, expect your value to increase since many older topics tend to hold long-term mainstream popularity, too.

How Easily Could I Establish Awareness?

Orkut isn’t what you’d call ‘cute or funny. However, it does sound interesting when slurring it after drinking twenty beers – and the name found its way through search engines rather quickly. Of course, Linked In sounds more indicative to services it provides; so what’s our point? Getting great adult videos from http://www.adultpornvideox.com/ is more indicative of someone that likes sensuality, thereby meriting a different kind of crowd.

The third value hiker in domain and brand valuation is relative to how quickly, easily and profitably one can develop said business – with or without domain attached – without spending hefty marketing dollars; by rule, you could easily dump $.15 cents off each dollar for marketing preparation and campaign launching difficulty. One could clearly restore that loss if premium names containing single words, household phrases or anything else brand-worthy is being sold if the previous two environments are favorable.

Conclusion

Domain sellers have long established valuation based off what other names sold for, strange analytical data configurations and whatever else is deemed appropriate. Personally, whether it’s LLL.com’s or premium keyword loaded names means little if nobody wants it – yet when they do, expect something else to take control of the buyer’s final decision and, inevitably, drive prices to a more mutually respectable level.

Trading options for income: Strategy statistics

In our quest to understand trading options for income, we rely on the Probability Model to determine where to place our short strikes for both the Strangle and Iron Condor (IC). Just how accurate is the Probability Model given a high IV (implied volatility) environment is the focus of this article.

A short Strangle is an undefined risk option strategy in which an OTM (out of the money) Call option is sold while concurrently selling an OTM Put option, resulting in premium received. The max gain is the premium; the max loss cannot be determined which is why this is called an undefined risk trade. A one lot Strangle requires just 2 options to be sold (1 option per leg). When trading low cost underlyings, like ETFs, the Strangle offers the opportunity to bring in more premium than is practical with an Iron Condor (IC).

A short Iron Condor (IC) is a defined risk option strategy composed of the following: an OTM (out of the money) Put credit spread and an OTM Call credit spread, both within the same option chain. A credit spread is a vertical option strategy composed of a short OTM option plus a long further OTM option. The capital at risk is the difference between the short and long strikes less the premium received. A one lot IC requires 4 options (2 options per leg).

A short Chicken Iron Condor is a defined risk option strategy composed of the following: a NTM (near the money) Put credit spread and a NTM Call credit spread, both within the same option chain. The objective of this strategy is to collect 45 to 50 percent of the width of the strikes. The capital at risk is the difference between the short and long strikes less the premium received. A one lot Chicken IC requires 4 options (2 options per leg).

To determine how accurate the Probability Model is, Tasty Trade recently conducted a test over 5 years using the following ETFs: EWW, GLD, IWM, SPY, and TLT. The test criteria was as follows: enter a trade on the first trading day of each month if the IV Rank is greater than 50; the DTE (days till expiration) should be around 45 days; and hold the position through expiration. The Strangle and IC (5 point wide spreads) should have their short strikes at 90 percent OTM (1.25 standard deviation) for a POP (probability of profit) around 80 percent. The Chicken IC (2 point wide spreads) should have its short strikes located at the first strike just OTM to collect between $0.90 and $1.00.

Our expectation for the Strangles and 5 point ICs is that the percent winners would fall around 90 percent. For the Chicken IC, our expectation is 50 percent.

The results: with 70 total trades, the Strangle had 93 percent winners, the IC had 91 percent, and the Chicken IC had 54 percent. It is interesting to note that the Strangle had an average ROC (return on capital) of 5.85 percent vs. 5.49 percent for the IC vs. 8.46 percent for the Chicken IC. The largest loss was the Strangle at -$560 vs. -$462 for the IC vs. -$108 for the Chicken IC.

In conclusion, this would indicate that the Probability Model in high IV environments is quite accurate. I would question the average ROC of the Strangle, since it is not clear whether Tasty Trade used a 1 SD (standard deviation) measure rather than the more appropriate reduction in buying power (or margin requirement). In addition, testing shorter periods (for example, a 7 DTE) would reveal (from our own testing) a higher ROC and P&L.

Sears planning more stores closures in its steep, uphill climb to profitability

According to yesterday’s Wall Street Journal, Sears Holdings Corp. (SHLD) is expected to announce more store closures as part of a steep, uphill climb back to profitability, with the backdrop of its recently reporting its 28th consecutive quarterly loss of $358 million dollars in the 4th quarter of 2013. Sears will be announcing financial results for its fiscal 2014 first quarter on or about Thursday, May 22, 2014, said the company.
More Photos
View all 7 photos

Sears is sure to report its 29th consecutive quarterly loss, the only question remaining is how steep of a loss and how much cash is being burned. That report will also be significant in determining the number of stores to close.

When it comes to the store closings, Sears chief executive officer Eddies Lampert rationalizes it this way: “You don’t need 2,000 stores to be competitive in the U.S.” Lampert said this at the company’s annual meeting at its headquarters in Hoffman Estates, Ill. Since 2005, Sears has closed more than 500 locations, Lampert said.

Yet losses keep mounting, in spite of these cost-cutting moves to return to profitability.

In the past, Mr. Lampert said he was more inclined to keep a marginal store open, but now if a store weren’t turning a healthy profit, his choice would be to not renew the lease. He didn’t say how many stores would be closed.

Lampert is betting the entire business on their hope for success with its “Shop Your Way” rewards loyalty program. Thus far, in spite of having “millions of members,” the losses mount.

Sears, which includes the flagship Sears and Kmart chains, is trying to reverse years of losses and declining sales. To do that, Mr. Lampert is building a loyalty program and investing in online initiatives. So far, the benefit hasn’t been enough to offset weakness in Sears’ brick-and-mortar stores, where the company still gets the majority of its sales.

Sears isn’t alone in shrinking. As American shopping habits change with more sales online and fewer shopping trips to indoor shopping malls, many retailers are rethinking their stores’ footprint.

The main question is this: Can Sears become a force in the online, ecommerce world?

The competition is heavy and the Sears “brand” has taken a beating with consumers over the years.

J.C. Penney, RadioShack Corp. and Staples Inc. have all announced plans to close stores this year. In addition, Office Depot Inc. said Tuesday it intends to close at least 400 stores in the U.S.

At Sears, many stores are simply too big, Mr. Lampert said. So he plans to continue to lease space at some desirable locations to other retailers like Sears has with Whole Foods Market and Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. Mr. Lampert sees rental income as a growing revenue stream in the future.

That sounds more like a dream, than a real plan.

Ways to Discover How Web Marketing

Online marketing is one of the most current types of advertising and marketing that several businesses have yet to explore. Knowing Web marketing is not something that is done over night. There are hundreds of businesses currently advertising and marketing their products online so in order to work, you should be one step ahead of your competitors. This suggests you have to be the very first to discover new markets, try out new marketing techniques, develop a complying with on the most recent social networking sites, and market with the most up-to-date marketing units.

Advertising and marketing on the net is not merely limited to items. For instance, non-profit companies might market themselves on the web to increase recognition towards a social concern and develop a following of promoters. Sites market their material to deliver visitors. For example, Helium has advertisements around the Internet for their posts. The only means these sites will certainly make money is from Google, Content Link, or any other kinds of advertisements on their site. Figuratively speaking, they are in a roundabout way marketing the advertisements on their web page.

Some approaches to Online marketing include video advertising, which contains uploading videos online and promoting them, article advertising, which contains promoting your articles on the net, along with marketing. An additional popular kind of advertising and marketing on the web is viral marketing, which contains producing some kind of media, such as a picture, video clip, or tip and making it very popular across the Internet. This form of marketing virtually never straight markets an item, source, or ad, it makes something popular, which could aid a business.

For example, a questionable garments store would make a preferred video of people doing an appealing dance and the people dancing would certainly use clothes that the shop offers. If people like the video clip, they might such as the clothing, and, thus, may want to purchase them from the clothes shop.

There are no basic methods to find out advertising and you have to watch out for the frauds on the net. There are a lot of stammers on the Internet claiming they could teach you ways to make thousands with their kinds of Web marketing. Instances of these frauds are internet sites such as Maverick Money Makers, George Brown’s Website traffic Ultimatum, and several others. Nevertheless, not all Internet courses need to be put away as frauds. There still are some good guys out there. As an example, methodicalness.com is among the most thorough and preferred Web marketing courses on the Internet since it updates the advertising methods on its website frequently and takes various methods to typical types of advertising, such as information advertising and marketing or viral advertising and marketing. Many popular Network companies are regular customers to the methodicalness.com internet site.

Which is essentially an extremely general introduction of various way to find out Online marketing; there is an entire brand-new globe available.

After Ukrainian gold thefts Putin seeks protection for Russian and Chinese gold

After it was determined and validated that agents of the Federal Reserve and United States Treasury were involved in the theft of $20 billion in gold reserves held in the Ukrainian central bank, Russia and China began immediate plans to codify other Baltic states into joining a new trade zone that would allow them economic protections from Western aggression and financial looting. The first step in this was the creation of a Eurasian Trade Union that would allow nations tied to the dollar to begin trading in currencies or assets other than the global reserve.

And on May 28, in the wake of his speech at the International Economic Forum just four days ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin called for all Russian based industries and organizations around the world to be melded together under a single umbrella, where Russia would hold autonomous jurisdiction and sovereign dominion in all economic matters, no matter where they are located. In addition to this, Putin stressed the need for both Russian and Chinese gold reserves to seek greater protections from outside agencies, especially in the wake of the overnight looting by the West of Ukrainian, Libyan, and even Saudi gold holdings.

“I instruct the government to develop and approve before November 1 criteria according to which system-forming organizations of Russian economy and their subsidiaries should be compulsorily within Russian jurisdiction and to determine types, conditions, procedure, terms and ways of stimulating transfer of these organizations being in jurisdiction of foreign countries into Russian jurisdiction,” – Itar-Tass

On the matter of gold protections…

“For us (Russia and China) it is important to deposit those (gold and currency reserves) in a rational and secure way,” he said. “And we together need to think of how to do that keeping in mind the uneasy situation in the global economy.”

Putin also said China and Russia will consider further steps to shift to use of national currencies in bilateral transactions. – Reuters

Since the beginning of the economic sanctions placed on Russia by the U.S., the growing Eurasian superpower has accelerated its plans to divest itself, and the East, from Western financial controls, and have begun the implementation of alternative ways for nations around the world to economically function outside the dollar and SWIFT systems. With a new Eurasian Trade Union meant to compete against the European Union and dollar based swap lines, to a massive and historic energy agreement with China that utterly cuts off the petro-dollar and reserve currency system, Russia is systematically preparing itself, along with China, India, and several BRICS nations, for a time predicted by China’s state press of a ‘de-Americanized’ world, and one that appears to be based on an eventual gold backed currency.

In just the past month, Russia has dumped nearly $26 billion in dollar reserves and replaced them with 900000 ounces of physical gold. This, along with their current gold reserves and that stored in China’s central bank, are expected to be the basis for a new gold trade note, and eventual creation of a global gold backed currency. And with U.S. geo-politics now dedicated to the taking of the gold, oil, and national wealth of foreign nations at an accelerated pace, it is not a coincidence that even a country like Austria is joining Russia and China by declared just two days ago that it wants an audit of all its gold holdings stored in London to ensure that what they believe they own actually exists and is protected.

Real Estate: 3 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom Pool Homes in New Port Richey from $200,000

If you’re looking for a great 3 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom Pool Home investment in New Port Richey and have a starting budget of $200,000, then we’ve got just what you’re looking for.
More Photos
View all 16 photos

New Port Richey, Florida is located in Pasco County and within the county is the largest self-governed town with a population of over 16,000 residents. This town is located right between the cities of Port Richey and Holiday and is surrounded by many familiar cities such as Clearwater and Tampa. One great feature of this town is many areas are coastal and set right along the Gulf of Mexico which provides its residents with many diverse types of real estate. The real estate properties of New Port Richey, Florida range from waterfront single-family homes, to those set more inland. The price ranges of homes in New Port Richey are so widespread, that no matter what your budget, you will be able to find a home that not only suits your lifestyle, but your wallet as well. New Port Richey still owns that small town feel and is greatly displayed through the area and friendliness of the citizens. Purchasing New Port Richey real estate is a no brainer!

Here are some great 3 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom Pool Homes in New Port Richey from $200,000

Josh Parker is the CEO & Team Leader of ProFusion Property Group at Keller Williams Realty, located in Trinity, FL. Josh is an award winning REALTOR®, a 2-time BOLD Graduate, an active Agent Leadership Council Member, the Chairman of the Agent Productivity Committee, and a Tampa YPN Committee Member. ProFusion Property Group specializes in the listing & sale of residential real estate for Pinellas, Pasco & Hillsborough Counties. His team has successfully sold over 250 units for their clients in 2012-2013, while maintaining an exceptional “sold price to list price” statistic of 99.08% (nearly 4% higher than the market average). For more information, free tips, and free home searches, please visit Josh & the ProFusion Team at www.profusionpg.com or www.facebook.com/profusionpropertygroup.

McDonald’s Happy Meals terrible for kids in more ways than one

McDonald’s isn’t exactly the epitome of healthy food, but the famous Happy Meals do more than add fat and calories to kids’ diet. They are an aggressive marketing tool that gets kids hooked not only on the unhealthy food, but on the toys inside the box and visiting the fast food chain on a regular basis. Happy Meals seek to make McDonald’s profits bigger while creating a generation of dependent kids who want their parents to keep bringing them back to the fast food restaurant.

A recent article in Huffington Post titled, “11 Unsettling Facts You Should Know About McDonald’s Happy Meals,” editor Renee Jacques outlined the unhealthy foods and marketing tricks little kids are being exposed to in the Happy Meals. One shocker, McDonald’s is the largest distributor of toys in the world.

The average person might think Toys R Us or Wal-Mart holds this title, but no, a fast food chain does. McDonald’s gives away 1.5 billion toys globally each year. 90% of children between the ages of 3 and 9 eat at McDonald’s at least monthly. And each Happy Meal has a small toy inside.

For a decade, Disney partnered with McDonald’s. Whenever a new Disney movie hit theaters, little toys hit the McDonald’s Happy Meals. from 1996 – 2006, Nemo, Mr. Incredible, and 101 Dalmatians were some of the characters included in Happy Meals. In 2006, Disney ended its promotional agreement with McDonald’s because it has built a reputation for “being family friendly, and wanted to distance itself from the epidemic of childhood obesity. (Boston Globe, May 8 2006.)

Another interesting fact, “The healthier Happy Meals at McDonald’s are still pretty bad for kids.” In 2011, McDonald’s revamped the Happy Meal by adding fresh sliced (but packaged) apples to the boxed meal. The apples came with a caramel dipping sauce which was dropped when critics pointed out the empty calories and sugar content.

The size of the fries was cut from 2.4 ounces to 1.1 ounces. An average Happy Meal contains 600 calories, which is still too high for little kids. Most of those calories are empty and the meal is low in vitamins, antioxidants, and fiber. All important things in a child’s diet.

Since these changes, sales of Happy Meals have declined. Unfortunately, kids are just eating off the Dollar Menu. Launched in 2002, the McDonald’s Dollar Menu offers menu items including burgers, chicken nuggets, ice cream, and cookies. Kids are getting the same food devoid of nutrition just without the fancy box and free toy.

Trading options for income: Debit spreads when IV is low

In our quest to understand trading options for income, we use credit spreads (selling Iron Condors) when IV (implied volatility) is high to generate consistent income. Does it make sense to use debit spreads (buying Iron Condors) when IV is low?

The Iron Condor is a defined risk non-directional strategy that is often employed for underlyings that have high IV (implied volatility) or high IV rank (greater than 50%). It is comprised of two vertical spreads: a Put spread and a Call spread.

A vertical spread is comprised of two options within the same option chain (Weekly or Monthly) which are bought and sold concurrently. To form a credit spread (which brings premium into your account), you sell one option with a strike that is closer to ATM (at the money), or closer the current price of the underlying, while buying an option with a strike that is further OTM (out of the money), or further away from the underlying’s current price. A short IC (Iron Condor) is comprised of two credit spreads.

Conversely, to form a debit spread (which takes money from your account), you buy one option with a strike that is closer to ATM while selling an option with a strike that is further OTM. A long IC is comprised of two debit spreads.

To determine if long ICs will work as a strategy when IV Rank is low (periods when IV is low for the underlying), Tasty Trade recently conducted a test from 2009 through May 2014 of five ETFs: SPY, GLD, EWW, TLT, and IWM.

The test criteria is as follows: open a long IC position on the first trading day of each month with approximately 45 DTE (days till expiration) if IV Rank is below 50 percent; each debit spread should be $2 wide; the long strike should be at 80 percent OTM; and hold the position through expiration.

The results: out of 241 trades, the win ratio is 32 percent with a P&L of -$1,742; a slightly better than the expected win ratio of 29 percent (0.58 / 2.00). Only two (GLD, EWW) of the five ETFs had a positive P&L (percent winners of 35 and 34 percent respectively); IWM had the worse P&L at -$1,020 (25 percent winners).

In conclusion, the strategy of long ICs during periods of low IV Rank does not work. In a previous article on short Strangles during low IV Rank the results were positive, indicating that short strategies (Strangles and ICs) offer better outcomes than its inverse: long strategies.

Janet Yellen interview (Part II)

This is the second part of the Janet Yellen interview from the documentary, Money for Nothing: Inside the Federal Reserve. As in the earlier article, I will highlight some of the questions, capture her response, and provide commentary.

Question: U.S. Government debt has grown much faster than the economy. Will the Fed be forced to devalue the Dollar?

A lot of people have the view that government debt is ultimately inflationary. I’d like to take issue with that. It is not ultimately inflationary if you have an independent central bank and that central bank keeps its eye firmly focused on price stability. It is our job that regardless of what happens to the deficit and debt, it does not translate into inflation. When we get out of the crisis, we will have to tighten monetary policy and interest rates could go very high. But we do have the tools to contain inflation and whatever the government does or does not do with its budget, it does not end up as inflation.

Comment: Inflation is an increase in the amount of outstanding money and credit. If government spends more then it has to ask its people for more tax money or it has to borrow. Let’s use round numbers and say that the Federal Government borrows 40-50% of its budget. If the Fed is buying a good portion of this debt, and they are, where does the Fed get its money to buy the debt? The Fed Wizards create this money through accounting entries in banking cyberspace thus increasing the supply of money, which by definition is inflation. The inflation is visible in the prices of financial assets and has reemerged to some degree in housing. When Main St. thinks of inflation, they think about rising prices (an effect from inflation). If the Fed has the tools to control inflation, then perhaps they can explain the origin of recent financial bubbles.

Question: Can the Fed really control the rate of inflation?

We are totally [my emphasis] responsible for inflation in the long run. I don’t mean over 3 months, 6 months or even a year. But we can as a central bank, commit if we are going to have a low inflation rate and if we don’t get there it’s no one’s fault but the central bank.

Comment: We can conclude that she means that low inflation is good. Does this mean that the high price inflation of the late 1970s was the central bank’s fault? Does this mean that the financial asset bubble (inflation) is the central bank’s fault as well? I agree that there are things the central bank can do to control inflation particularly in the long run, however, if that is the case why is the Dollar worth a fraction of what it was when the Fed was born? Perhaps the Wizards are not in control?

Question: Should the Fed have raised interest rates sooner to defuse the late 1990s stock bubble? What has the Fed learned about bubbles since then?

Who could have looked at the Nasdaq in 1999 and not had some concern that these prices had reached bubble levels? Shouldn’t we have tightened monetary policy to address it? I think what most people would have thought inside the Fed then, and I wasn’t but I agreed with it, was we have an economy that in terms of the goals Congress assigned us (jobs, price stability), it is doing just fine. It does not need a tighter monetary policy and if we tighten monetary policy to bring stock prices down, we are probably gonna have to tighten a lot. We are gonna harm our performance on all the things Congress put on our scorecard.

This has been a devastating financial crisis. It is hard to pick up the pieces. We have intervened very aggressively and stopped what could have been an utter financial meltdown. Most members of the Fed anticipate that we will have high unemployment for a number of years despite our best efforts. We have pushed close to the limits to what we can do to address that.

Comment: Former Chair Greenspan warned of this overheating with his “irrational exuberance” comment. His supposed mastery of the economy led him to be called Maestro. The button pushing and lever pulling of his wizardry focused on a humming economy, regardless of what excesses were created elsewhere. Once again, the Fed goals were stretched beyond its original intention (provide liquidity) through Congressional mandate of focusing on jobs and price stability. Yellen’s immediate predecessor, Bernanke, suggested that part of the Fed’s mission was to keep the stock market high and Wall St. waits on bated breath for whatever the Fed says. Fed mission creep, whether self-inflicted or congressionally inflicted, creates the Wizard aura and makes their job much harder.

The Fed has intervened quite aggressively, so much so that despite their purchases of trillions in assets, we do not have rampant price inflation except in the area of financial assets. That makes sense since that is exactly what the Fed is buying/has bought. If instead of buying financial assets, the Fed had bought cars, what do you think the price of an automobile would be?

The Fed has been waging a death battle against deflation. Had they not intervened in purchasing financial assets, the value of those assets would have plunged. The financial markets never finished the catharsis that started in 2008 and now have instead re-inflated. As the Fed Chair said, “we have pushed close to the limits”; indeed they have. The popping of the financial bubble will demand the Fed push those limits again, but those limits will prove immovable.

Stock market preview for the week of May 26, 2014

The S&P 500 finished Friday at a record high of 1900.53 also being its first close above 1900. The index pushed higher in four sessions, breaking a two week drought by finishing the week with a 1.21% gain. The index has increased in 20 of the past 29 sessions.

Average daily volume levels decreased 8.84% compared to the average daily volumes of the previous week. The week’s largest volume was seen during the week’s lone retreat on Tuesday, with the lowest volume seen on Friday. The five day volume variance decreased 0.37% over that seen in the previous week to 25.51%.

After the S&P 500 began the week higher on Monday, Tuesday’s pullback again found support near the 1865 upper level of the Midrange Resistance Level (MRL) with a rebound at 1868.14. The index has moved progressively higher since, showing continued bullishness. Thursday’s low appeared to find support near the 1883 resistance within the 100 L, rebounding at 1885.39 after retreating from Wednesday’s close of 1888.03, and Friday’s move higher broke and closed above the 1897 resistance with the push to record highs.

The last trading day before a long holiday weekend often sees the index’s price retreat, as many investors move to the sidelines to prevent a news event in foreign markets from stymieing the market when US markets are closed for the holiday. Friday’s price increase would appear to show a heighten level of investor confidence that stock prices could move higher.

Major Stock Market Indexes

The index charts of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, NASDAQ, New York Stock Exchange and Russell 2000 continued to show bullish signs. All five indexes have pushed higher in five of the past six sessions with the lone setback coming during a lower finish on Tuesday.

The Russell 2000 continues to lag in its rebound. Although the current high fell somewhat short of the previous cycles high, it finished the week near this high. A break above the previous cycle’s high would give it two higher highs in a row.

The NASDAQ again pushed to highs higher than that seen in the previous cycle and is near to establishing an uptrend. The NASDAQ broke and closed above the 50 EMA on Thursday, with Friday’s continued move higher gapping above the 50 EMA. It finished the week with its highest close since April 3.

The S&P 500, Dow Jones and New York Stock Exchange pushed and close above their 13 EMA’s on Wednesday and appear to beginning a trend higher above this indicator.

The S&P 500 also broke above resistance at 1897 on Friday, finishing above the century mark at 1900 for the first time. It finished above resistance at 1883 in four of the past five sessions. The index also found support near the 1883 resistance with a rebound above this resistance during a retreat on Thursday.

Current conditions make it seem likely the indexes could move higher in the week ahead.

US Treasury Charts

The 20 year US Treasury Bond slipped in three sessions, falling and finishing below the 13 EMA on Wednesday and Thursday before rebounding back above it on Friday. The 20 year Treasury price has fallen in nine of the past 15 sessions. The three gapping moves higher during the previous week now appear to be inconsistent with price movements over that 15 day time period. Treasuries saw little price movement higher after these large opening gaps and upward price movement during normal trading hours appeared to lack sustainability in the other three sessions with moves higher. This chart continues to be bullish, but is now showing signs of faltering. Treasuries have fallen from fully overbought conditions, but are not yet oversold.

Long term Treasuries price charts continue to look bullish. This is a somewhat bearish indication for stocks.

The interest rate on the 10 year US Treasury Note pushed higher in three sessions during the week. It was turned back at the 13 EMA in Thursday’s climb higher and slipped into Friday’s stock rally, both being somewhat bearish. At the same time a continued move higher after a rebound near a bullish support and an increase over the previous week are bullish indications. This chart is still near oversold conditions.

Gold

Gold slipped to about 1291 early Sunday night before beginning a rebound before the Hong Kong open that carried gold higher to finish the night at about 1295.

Monday morning saw gold level off in Hong Kong before spiking higher to about 1301 shortly after the London open. It bounced slightly higher to about 1303 before slipping back to 1300 before the New York open. Shortly after the New York open it spiked higher again to about 1305, but that spike turned into a long downtrend falling steeply initially then more slowly as the night progressed until it bottomed at about 1291 shortly after the Hong Kong open. Gold rebounded from that low to finish the night at about 1293.

Tuesday saw gold begin to trend lower reaching a low of 1286 shortly after the New York open. It bounced back to 1289 and traded flatly until spiking higher to a little over 1296. After a few bounces lower, it began a flattish trend lower reaching about 1293 by mid-session in Hong Kong. It later rebounded to finish Tuesday at about 1295.

Gold trended lower for most of Wednesday reaching a low of about 1283 on the New York Gobex. It rebounded quickly to about 1293 and then traded mostly flat to finish the night at about 1292.

The flatness continued early Thursday before gold began a trend higher in Hong Kong that reached about 1297 shortly after the New York open, where it spiked to 1303 then trended fairly steeply lower to 1294. Gold continued a slight trend lower, but traded very flatly within a point or so of 1294 before rebounding late in the Hong Kong session to finish the night at about 1295.

Friday saw gold trend lower to 1288 shortly after the New York open and then spike back up to 1294 in early trading. It trended lower to about 1291 and then mostly higher before rounding slightly lower into a New York Spot close of 1292.30, which was just slightly lower than the 1292.90 New York Spot close of the previous week.

Gold appears to be range bound spending the past two weeks within about the same boundaries. Gold spent much of past week trending lower off of spikes higher, giving a somewhat bearish feel to recent trading.

S&P 500 Constituent Charts

Overall the constituent charts continue to show bullishness.

Many of the stocks that turned higher after setbacks a few weeks ago have continued higher and established uptrends. Several have pushed to new yearly highs and several have broken above resistance in moves higher.

Many of the constituents that are in short term downtrends or cycling lower appear be at or near likely support levels.

Several constituents have reversed long downtrends and are now trending higher. If these stocks continue in previously established cycles, they have considerable upside potential.

Although an increasing number of constituents are beginning to hold in or near overbought levels again, the remainders are in a fairly wide range of stages of between overbought and oversold conditions, showing reduced correlation. This is part of the staggering pattern referenced in these articles and is generally a bullish sign. The presence of this pattern generally reduces the size of daily price moves on the index, since not all the constituents are moving into or out of overbought or oversold conditions at the same time. Smaller price moves on the index show reduced volatility, and low volatility is a bullish indication. Although price moves on the index are generally smaller they most often produce an overall price move higher. Once this pattern is fully established, it often sustains for long durations.

Several stocks took fairly steep pullbacks in the past week or so. Many of these were due to earnings misses or reduced guidance. Some have rebounded quickly from these falls, while others appear to be finding support levels. Although earnings misses and guidance reductions are headline grabbers and often cause selloffs, many of the earnings reports contain silver linings that are easily overlooked by investors during early news releases. As a result many of these pullbacks appear to present buying opportunities.

Indicators

Although the indicators featured in these articles are not always correct, they have been many times and being so they are worth reading about and taking note of.

The +/(-) 90 D and 100 L indicators are currently active. The+2% H and -2% L indicators expired with Friday’s close and are currently dormant. See a more detailed description of most of the indicators developed through research and featured in these articles here.

The +2% H indicator did not provide a correct indication during the past week. The thirty day period that the index normally sees offsetting moves in, expired with Friday’s close. This indicator would normally fall to a low state for another five trading days due to a small chance that a market move of this proportion could happen during the fringe days around the expiration date. However, current market conditions make it seem unlikely a move higher of this proportion would occur in this instance and therefore this indicator was allowed to fall dormant early.

The -2% L indicator did not provide a correct indication during the past week and expired with Friday’s close. This indicator is now dormant.

The +/(-) 90 D that became active on Feb 21, 2014 has performed as follows to this point in the format: highest close / lowest close / last close.

+3.50 / -1.12% / 3.50%

The S&P 500 has closed above the resistance found within the 100 L at 1883 for three consecutive days and in four of the past five sessions. Generally three consecutive closes above a resistance level tend to show the resistance has been broken, however the index had closed above this resistance for three consecutive days earlier on April 1 through April 3 but succumbed to this resistance again.

The 1883 resistance has been formidable. Since March 6 the index saw 13 daily highs and six closes fall within three points of the 1883 resistance level. Only 23 daily highs moved above it and the index closed above this level only 13 times during that 56 trading day stretch. As a result, the resistance has caused the index to move virtually sideways for over two months. The sideways move had taken the index near its lower trend line in the rebound off March 2009 crash lows. Rebounds off or near this trend line have consistently moved higher, making it seem fairly likely the current move higher could continue.

So far the 1883 resistance has offered support for five daily lows within three points of the resistance. Only two of these supports were found above this resistance level, the latest being on Thursday. The other was on May 14, but the index fell and closed below the 1883 resistance on May 15, whereas Friday continued higher off Thursday’s rebound. Rebounds found near prior resistance are often bullish indications.

Current Cautions

The index rebounded to recover from the significant drop seen within the 100 L. It seems possible the resistance at 1883 has given way, and the index also breached resistance at 1897 in the run higher. The later portions of that run rebounded bullishly above the 1883 resistance resulting in Friday’s push into and close within the upper half of the 100 L resistance. The upper resistance level of the 100 L appears to be softer than the lower level. If Friday’s run broke the 1897 resistance, it seems possible the index could begin to trend higher and break free of the 100 L.

Average daily volume levels decreased 8.84% compared to the average daily volumes of the previous week. Decreasing volumes into runs higher are generally bullish indications. As in the past week, the week’s largest volume was seen during the week’s lone retreat on Tuesday, but again this volume was lower than volumes seen earlier during moves higher. The five day volume variance decreased slightly by 0.37%, remaining in a bullish posture.

The next likely area resistance could be found once the index passes the 100 L at 1900 is in the Midrange Resistance Level (MRL) between 1940 and 1955. The MRL appears to have the potential to cause a significant pullback, but probably not a large pullback if one were to be seen there. It also seems possible the index could move past this level without incidence.

It appears possible the index could reach the 1940 to 1955 MRL in conjunction with the expiration period of a 90 Day indicator. The expiration period of a 90 Day indicator activates a 90 E indicator. Although not always so, the 90 E indicator is potentially bearish as the S&P 500 has often exhibited bearish traits during the active periods of this indicator in the past. Therefore the presence of a 90 E indicator at this resistance increases the chances a significant pullback could be seen. The expiration period also falls within a timeframe that is sometimes somewhat bearish for stocks.

At the same time, the long sideways move at the 1883 resistance appears to have increased upward tensions in many of the constituent stocks. It does not seem likely these tensions could be fully relieved in the relatively short move to the MRL, which could limit the downside potential at this resistance. Although the potential for a significant pullback could increase if the index should reach this resistance with a potentially bearish indicator active and during a potentially bearish timeframe, barring any unforeseen circumstances, it continues to seem unlikely a pullback at this level would be large and still might not reach significant levels.

There is a slight chance that resistance could also be seen at 1970, but this resistance does not appear to have the potential to cause a significant pullback. If the resistance at 1970 is seen at all, it will probably do little more than slow the index’s ascent for a relatively short duration.

There continues to be many reasons to be bullish at the current time. Any pullbacks in stock prices seen along the way are probably a good opportunity to add.

If the index continues within the trend established off the crash lows, it seems possible it could reach the 2000 to 2100 level in seven to 16 months if it reaches this level near the upper trend line and within 34 to 40 months if it reaches this level near the lower trend line. The data suggests the Midrange Resistance Level (MRL) at 2035 to 2055 could hold the resistance level of concern within this range at 2040. More details of this potential resistance can be seen in past articles.

Please note there is no established resistance in the MRL levels before the index has reached these levels. Several instances have proven to hold resistance once reached; however MRL levels that the index has not yet reached are only the most likely levels that resistance will be seen based on research. Back tests of the data used to project these resistance levels work well, but they are not allows exact, and these resistances could react sooner or later than expected, it is also possible the resistance will not be seen at all.

Many of these sources of information were used in this article.

Subscribe to receive Email alerts for new articles as they are published near the top or bottom of this page.

Have a great day trading,
ronz

Access link to all of Ron’s past articles.

Disclosure: Ron is currently about 84% invested long in stocks in his trading accounts. His investment level remained constant over the past week although he bought two issues with the cost of these purchases partially offset by the sale of one issue and dividend payments. Ron feels comfortable with his investment level at the current time and plans to try to stay near this investment level for the time being. However he has and will continue to sell stocks that reach long or short term targets and also continue to add stocks he feels are at a great value through a variety of buy orders. Ron will receive dividend payments from ten issues in the coming week and 18 in the following week. If no further investment changes are made during this timeframe these dividend payments will not change his investment level.

Some of the trades made during the past week may have been due to repositioning investments as discussed in a previous article.

Disclaimer: The information provided in the Stock Market Preview is Ron’s perception of the current conditions and what he thinks is the most probable outcome based on the current conditions, the data collected and extensive research he has done into this data along with other variables. It is intended to provoke thought of the possible market direction in his readers, not foretell the future. Ron does not claim to know what the stock market will do. If the stock market performs as expected, it only means he is applying the stock market history to the current conditions correctly. His perception of the data is not always correct.

This article is intended to provoke thought about investment possibilities. Acting on the information provided is at your own risk. You are urged to do your own research, and where appropriate, seek professional investment advice before acting on any information contained in these articles.